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Japan is a Train Wreck
By Courtney Smith
The latest insane policy to come out of Japan is that they are going to raise the countries' sales tax from 5% to 8%!
Yes, the Japanese economy is starting to grow. But so is inflation.
Yet Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says it is needed. The New York Times reports that he is "citing the need to “maintain confidence” in Japan’s fiscal health and pay for the country’s growing number of elderly citizens."
From the NY Times:
"If we raise taxes now, would consumption slump, and would the Japanese economy sink back into the deep valley that is economic morass and deflation?” he said. “I pondered these questions until the very end. But there is no road left for us but to grow our economy and to rebuild our finances at the same time.”
By combining a tax increase with government stimulus, Mr. Abe is signaling to global investors that Japan will start taking concrete steps to rein in its colossal debt and that it is prepared to take ample measures to shore up the economy.
Earlier this year, national debt topped 1 quadrillion yen, or $10 trillion, for the first time — more than twice the size of Japan’s economy and larger than the economies of Germany, France and Britain combined. That level of borrowing raises concerns that investors could one day lose confidence in Tokyo’s ability to service its debt, which could set off a crisis with grave consequences for the global economy."
This will fail.
Yes, the government needs more revenue. But raising sales tax will lead to less sales.
I have a principle. If you tax something, you get less of it.
The principle means that there will be less sales as a result of the tax hike. This means that there will be a near recession coming in Japan after that tax hike.
I'll monitor the situation closely to see if the staggering of the economy will create a trading opportunity. Normally, I'd be looking to sell the yen, Japanese stocks and buying Japanese bonds.
